Sunday, January 24, 2021

When will the FED's Ponzi scheme actions be seen for what it is? Just a boost for the stock market!


Due to incessant central banker and/or central planners as many like to be referred to...free-flowing massive intervention monetary policies and massive government stimulus have convinced traders and most investors that risk “has simply disappeared”, leaving these markets unable to fulfil their most significant role as a price discovery mechanism. I have repeated written and criticized the FED and central bankers for slashing rates and flooding the financial system with cyber money since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, arguing that the central banker’s moves have made it difficult to gauge the real health of the US economy as a vast number of zombie-firms are still breathing. As with cooking frogs you place them in tepid water that is slowly being heated to a rolling boil, investors are being conditioned not to recognize the danger in this market like Pavlov’s dogs. US stocks are up about 80% since their lows in March 2020, while spreads on ballooning corporate debt a historic measure of how much extra interest corporate borrowers have to pay compared to those seeking the safe haven of the US government, have mysteriously returned to pre-Covid levels this month (crazy-shit JMHO). The FED is once again taking on the persona of the proverbial “800-pound gorilla” continuing to price out investors who typically provide the needed liquidity in times of distress. The huge contagion as I see it with these unprecedented and likely unsustainable government and central bank interventions is that risks to capital become concealed even as they grow to the sky like the old story of “Jack and the Beanstalk” worse yet the FED’s policies have greatly exacerbated economic and wealth inequality! The FED’s policies and programs have directly contributed to exceptionally generous market conditions where nearly everything is bid up to obscene levels while downside volatility is curtailed. The market’s usual role in price discovery has effectively been halted we are in an environment where there is a constant search for yield that has driven far too many into riskier corners of the markets.  The FED’s drastic panic measures have helped to limit economic deterioration and they have rescue ailing businesses (far too many zombies) But they have also sparked two dangerous premises: ** That fiscal deficits don’t matter, and that no matter how much debt is outstanding, they and the government can effortlessly, safely, and reliably pile on more and more! As with the new-order where in 30-year-olds are still living in their parent’s basements, rent-free and board-free we can only wonder whether the markets will ever be expected to make it on their own again.

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